GM Is A Lost Vision
I remember watching GM CEO Roger Smith in a GM Corporate Teleconference in 1984 or 1985 indicating that GM had committed the necessary resources to set up Saturn and the research of Alex Maier that supported the idea.
At that time, in the mid 1980’s GM had about 50% market share and Oldsmobile sold about 1 million cars per year. Today’s sales are about 10 million units annually so using these numbers the Oldsmobile 1/10 = 10% of total sales. This is bad math, but it illustrates a point. Recent year sales have been about 16 million units so 6.25%.
Will the New GM Survive
On a very somber note GM will get smaller than anyone imagines, now that GM has gotten past the bankruptcy chaos. It is our assessment that in three years GM will be smaller than Ford and about the size of Honda.
GM Market Share Falling
Currently, GM talks about maintaining 19% of the U.S. market, but that’s not going to happen. Before bankruptcy, in the first four months of 2009, GM had 19.2% of the market. Car divisions to be shut down include Pontiac, Saturn, Hummer and Saab representing 2.8 points, which calculates to 16.4% remaining.
Continuing the calculation let’s look at Buick-Pontiac-GMC where Pontiac accounts for one-third of their sales. A second factor are fuel prices that will increase and third, EPA MPG requirements that will increase all combine to hammer GMC’s pickups and sport utility vehicles which means that GMC will see a sales decline. Today’s market share is 13% for Chevy and Cadillac. Projecting forward would be to take the 13% add in GMC & Buick and then adjust the numbers ahead 3 years. This is a sobering calculation which leads us to believe that GM will be about the size of Honda in 3 years.
GM Corporate Mismanagement
At that GM teleconference I was thinking about a statement made by a regional Division Manager of Oldsmobile anyone that messes with Oldsmobile is crazy. GM Corporate starved and neglected Oldsmobile and the entire GM product line.
The Automotive Tribune does not have an attorney on the staff but in our assessment it certainly seems that this type of GM Corporate Neglect in the Boardroom and CEO Corner Office represents a Civil Crime. GM’s Board of Directors (with a few exceptions who raised their voice and were shown the door) were dead to the reality of what was going on.
Was GM’s Board Guilty of a Civil Crime
That question can only be resolved by a Jury. As a Car Guy your Tribune Editor is of the opinion that the Jury would come back with the Decision that the GM Board was Negligent in their Responsibilities.
If the Jury questions were expanded to include Selected GM Corporate Officers that would prove to be really interesting. The Late Roger Smith was recognized as #13 in the CNBC list of Worst American CEO’s of All Time. … Continue Reading